Tuesday, April 22, 2008

I'd like to wish those concerned a happy Earth Day. Truthfully, Earth Day hasn't meant much more than advertising just how green people who aren't usually green are. You don't see much greeness from MSNBC, but the Today show had a segment on recycling your electronics, and their logo was green.

Big deal.

Real green would include ways to get off oil entirely. Convince people to carpool, to ride bicycles or motorbikes. What a scam.

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I participate regularly on survivalistboards.com, and last month we had an interesting post about the economy. Someone posted from another source the following list. It gives one pause to consider the state of the economy.

12 Steps towards economic collapse.

1. Housing recession.
2. The subprime mortgage loss continues.
3. Losses on unsecured debt: Credit cards, car loans, student loans.
4. Downgrading of monoline insurers' credit rating.
5. Meltdown in the commercial property market.
6. Bankruptcy of large regional or national banks.
7. Big losses on leveraged buyouts.
8. Wave of corporate defaults - insurers bankrupt.
9. Meltdown in shadow financial market: Hedge funds, margin calls and short sells.
10. Collapse in stock prices
11. Drying up of liquidity in financial markets, interbank loans, and money markets.
12. Vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, liquidation, and fire sales of assets.

The real question wasn't if these are truly a problem, but guessing where the US economy is right now. Kind of a pin-the-tail on the donkey exercise.

After some thought, I'd have to say that Ben Bernanke is really screwing the pooch. We've seen examples of #'s 1, 2, and 4, plus the Bear Sterns thing last month, it's hard to say what's the real state of the economy.

At least in my area, I haven't seen a meltdown in the commercial property market, but I have seen slowing. Why unsecured debt hasn't shown big losses yet is unknown - I imagine that the subprime crisis hasn't really hit it's stride, but may when the majority of adjustable mortgages reset this summer. Combine that with $4.00/ gallon gas, and you may be looking at the formation of an economic perfect storm.

So what to do? Most importantly, pay off your debts. Shrink your credit exposure. Pay off the highest interest rate credit card first, then the next highest, etc. Get a smaller car or a motorcycle. Get off petroleum as much as possible. Carpool and combine trips.

Next is get out your adjustable rate mortgage NOW. If you can find a lender you can work with, get into a fixed before they screw you. Find a good 30 year fixed with a doable rate.

After that, work on lowering your expenses.

Edit: Some interesting news I happened upon today through JWR's Survivalblog.com.
Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies

Maybe I spoke too soon about the meltdown in the commercial markets.

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